تحليل العلاقة بين تجارة العراق الخارجية والنمو الأقتصادي (2013-1980)

Abstract

This study highlights the importance of Iraq in the analysis of foreign trade and economic growth for the period (1980 - 2013) is an attempt to determine the equilibrium relationship long term and short term between these two variables were used ARDL model to explain the economic relationship between the two variables.To achieve the objectives of the research has been the standard model estimate after testing the stability of exports X data series, and imports M, and GDP current prices, and exchange rate EXR, and verify the existence of a joint integration relationship between these variables.In order to achieve the objectives of the research it has included Find two chapters: the first chapter included theoretical framework of foreign trade and economic growth in Iraq, while the second quarter included the theoretical framework of the standard model, analyze and measure the relationship between economic variables used.The results showed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between short-term and all of the foreign trade balance of trade represented by X / M dividing exports to imports and exchange rate EXR and gross domestic product (GDP) This is consistent with economic theory is consistent with the objectives of the research.