Preparing 5 – Years Plan for Accepting Students in Administration and Economics College / University of Baghdad by Using (Box - Jenkins) Methodology


One of the most important successful factors in any institution (whether educational or others) is the strategic planning based on scientific basis , integrating virtual systems away from guesswork and intuition .The main problem of this research is diagnosed by : the existence of disparity between numbers of really accepted students and the planned numbers in every academic year at the college of Administration and Economics – University of Baghdad . Oftenly , the numbers of really accepted students were more than the planned ones , this in turn leads to inability to develop the absorptive capacity of the college commensurate with the increasing numbers of really accepted students .This research aims to prepare a five – years plan of accepting under graduate students in the mentioned college by using (Box – Jenkins) methodology in time series analysis which is still considered as a modern method adopted in many currently studies .The time series of the really accepted students numbers in under graduate studies for previous academic years (from 1990/1991 to 2014/2015) were collected and analyzed for this reason .The research concluded that ARIMA (3,1,0) model is the only model appropriate and good fit the time series whereas its parameters were mostly significant and accurate . Therefore the research recommended to adopt it in the future plans.