Using the best probability distribution to predict the expected probabilities of Total electricity loading in Erbil city, using real data for the period of (2014-2015).

Abstract

In this research, a set of continuous probability distributions is applied on real data for the weekly average of the total electricity load for the period of (2014-2015) in Erbil city, and the following actions have been done:1. A set of probability distributions have been taken: (Weibull with three and two parameters, Gumbel min (Minimum Extreme Value Type 1) Distribution, Gumbel Max (Maximum Extreme Value Type 1) Distribution, Frechet (3p) (Three Parameters Maximum Extreme Value Type 2) Distribution, Frechet (Two Parameters Maximum Extreme Value Type 2) Distribution and Generalized Extreme Value Distribution) had been applied by the two tests for goodness of fit (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS)) and (Anderson Darling test (AD)) for the purpose of any knowledge of the probability distributions taken if it is appropriate (significant), followed by the real data, the following probabilities distributions have been obtained (Weibull with three and two parameters, Gumbel min (Minimum Extreme Value Type 1) Distribution, Generalized Extreme Value Distribution) were appropriate (significant) with the actual data.