تحليل فرضية التزامن المالي في الاقتصاد العراقي باستخدام منهجية Toda-Yamamoto للسببية

Abstract

The nature of the relationship between government revenues and expenditures has attracted increasing attention from researchers and policymakers in oil countries following the sharp collapse of crude oil prices in mid-2014, the worsening of fiscal deficits and public debt levels At rates that threaten the sustainability of growth, stability and economic growth in these countries. Identifying the correlation between government revenue and expenditure will help economic decision-makers understand the source of underlying financial imbalances and design a financial reform strategy that is appropriate to the current economic conditions and conditions in the oil-rent economies. The methodology of Johansen and Juselius and Toba and Yammamoto was used to test the hypothesis of fiscal synchronization and the three alternative hypotheses in the Iraqi economy during the period (1980-2015) to verify the nature and direction of the relationship between the variables mentioned.