Forecasting production, consumption and the food gap of rice crop in Iraq using Exponential Smoothing method

Abstract

The aim of this study was to predict the production, consumption and food gap of rice crop in Iraq, as well as the economic factors that affect the self-sufficiency ratio and the quantity of imports through the use of the time series (2015-1980). Statistical program (Minitab & SPSS) of the Exponential Smoothing method was adopted to Forecast the production, consumption, and nutritional gap of the rice crop for the period of (2016-2025). Single Exponential Smoothing method revealed the lowest MSE value of (11450.4). Rice yield consumption for the period (2025-2016), was measured with high (MSE) accuracy by the double Exponential Smoothing method, which was 87100.7. While, food gap, the single Exponential Smoothing was the best for predicting in the same period in terms owing to its lowest value (MSE) 84100.1. The self-sufficiency ratio was affected by five factors (cultivated area, Imports, available for consumption, import / production ratio, the dummy variable representing years of blockade), and Factors affecting the quantity of imports (rice production, available for consumption, border prices, the number of the population).