Analysis and measurement of the causal relationship between money supply and GDP In Iraq for the period (1988-2018)

Abstract

The problem of the study was the lack of clarity of the causal relationship between money supply and GDP in Iraq, which negatively affects economic growth, economic decisions and policies in Iraq, as well as the extent to which money can affect GDP and the impact of GDP on money supply. The study aims to analyze and measure the causal relationship between M2 and M1 and the GDP at current and constant prices in Iraq during the period 2018-1988. The use of Granger's reasoning, the joint integration test, and the error correction model were used to determine the direction of the causal relationship Between the two variables and the balance relationship in the short and long periods. The results showed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between money supply in the narrow and wide sense (M2 and M1) and Gross Domestic Product at current and constant prices. Moreover, the results of Granger's causality revealed a causal relationship that moves from GDP at constant prices to narrow and wide money supply . This result indicates that the real business cycles theory is correct in terms of the impact of GDP growth rates on money supply.