An-Economic and Econometrical Analysis of Iraq's External Exports of Dates for the Period (1995-2017)

Abstract

The development of agricultural exports, especially dates, has become a goal and direction that requires achieving in order to achieve the conditions of development, the multiplicity of exports and access to foreign exchange. The focus on dates comes from being the most important agricultural product that Iraq continues to export even in the most difficult economic conditions. The study deals with the Economic and Econometrical Analysis of Iraq's External Exports of Dates for The Period (1995-2017). Where the value of dates exports were taken as a dependent factor. Whereas the independent factors are (production of date, border price, exchange rate, per capita national income, local price). The stability of the time series has been tested by the Extended Dekey-Fuller test (ADF) and the Phillips-Peron test (PP). The results of the stability tests showed that some variables stabilized at the level, while others stabilized at the first difference, in addition to testing the relationship of Co-integration between the variables of the study, the (Bound Test) was used. The results showed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship (co-integration) between the value of exports dates and independent variables. The results showed that the variables contain the expected signal, and through conducting the diagnostic tests, the model is found to be free of standard problems.