تأثير بعض السياسات الكلية في الصادرات الزراعية العراقية للمدة من (4102-0991)

Abstract

The research aims to determine the effect of the macroeconomicsvariables of agricultural exports, which have small contribution to the totalvolume of exports. As agricultural imports increase, this leads to a deficit in theagricultural trade balance. Exports can increase the contribution of agriculturalproduction to GDP on foreign currencies that can be invested in expandinginvestment and productive projects in addition to maintaining prices andexpanding markets. In order to achieve the objective of the research, the longterm relationship between the macro-policy variables (exchange rate, investmentexpenditure, and agricultural GDP) and the dependent variable agriculturalexports were examined for the period 1990-2014 using the Johansen and aftertesting the stability of the time series of the variables of the study the VECMmodel was chosen. The results of the estimation of the function in the short termshowed that agricultural exports are affected by macro-policy variables. Boththe exchange rate and the agricultural output have been found to have a positiveand significant effect.1% increase in the exchange rate will lead to an increase inexports 0.35% in the short term and 0.22% in the long term .The increase inagricultural GDP by 1% will lead to an increase of agricultural exports by3.08% in the short term and 3.30% in the long term .this is consistent witheconomic logic. The size of the surplus exceeds the local need of the country andthe surplus is exported to other countries as requested by the importingcountries, and the export earnings from foreign exchange can expand theagricultural investment. Therefore, the study recommends that the Central Bankof Iraq and the financial authorities adopt policies that stimulate agriculturalexports of raw materials and processed materials and reduce reliance on importsfrom abroad for both agricultural products and production requirements.Through the provision of loans and financial allocations to farmers andresearchers in the agricultural sector in order to increase rates of productivitygrowth and government spending in the fields of scientific research. Governmentspending in the fields of scientific research and management of the agriculturalsector should be directed efficiently and determine the impact of the exchangerate in both exports and agricultural imports