Prediction of the Iraqi Imports by Using Markov Chain


This study targeted based on its hypothesis, the prediction of Iraqi imports from international groups (Asian, Arab, European, North America) for the years (2017-2022) using the Iraqi import data (2016-2017), according to economic reports published with the Central Bank using Markov chains. The data of the World Bank have adopted inter-trade for international groups. On this basis, the transition matrix was calculated that showed very close results to the real data of international groups (Asian, Arab, North America) Similarly, it was used to predict import values for the years (2018-2022). The most important results of the study, is the continuous increase of imports with all international totals, and the increase for North American and European countries by increasing rates, while omit it Arab and Asian countries increased by decreasing rates.