تحليل وقياس العلاقة بين عرض النقود وبعض متغيارت الاقتصاد الكلي التركي

Abstract

The aims of the Search to find the relationship between some of the variables of the Turkish macro-economy and the Supply of money in the broader sense and its reflection on the value of the Turkish lira. The methodology of the research was descriptive analysis of the annual data of the variables of the study for the period 2007-2017. The researcher also used the quantitative approach to analyze the relationship above, 2007: 1-2017: 4. The standard study showed that the variables of the study were static in the first difference. Therefore, the Johansson test was used to examine the existence of Co- integration. The positive and Significant effect of the exchange rate variable, positive and Significant effect by the general level of consumer prices, and the existence of a positive and non-significant effect of the export / import variable with the money supply. The error correction parameter indicates that the ratio of )T-1( can be corrected during the current period )t( by changing the value of the variables, which is very high and means that the money supply takes approximately 0.97% of the short- ( From the quarter )87( days towards the long-term equilibrium value, after the impact of any shock in the pattern As a result of the change in the independent variables either short-term relationship was not significant between the variables of the study. The study found that the weakness of the mechanism of transition from monetary policy to the real market was disabled or disabled in relation to the interest rate, and that the Turkish economy suffers from a low rate of return on investment compared with the high cost of investment due to high investment risks ,The rise in the accumulated deficit, as well as the high rate of inflation, which has negative effects on the Turkish economy and the decline in the value of money, and recommended the study to reform the monetary policy and the activation of interest rates to counter inflation and prevent the continued collapse of the value of the Turkish .lira