Vulnerability Analysis and Trend of Rain in Iraq

Abstract

The study of rain is considered as one of the important climatic studies, especially as the rain ranks first in terms of importance compared to other climate elements, because of its great impact on all aspects of life, this research aims to study and analyze the fluctuation and direction of rain in Iraq at the seasonal and seasonal level. The study relied on (8) climatic stations distributed geographically over the study area for the period (1987-2017), the study relied on some advanced statistical programs in analyzing the direction and fluctuation experienced by the rain in the region, and the study showed that the rain during the rainy season tends to decrease in all stations of the study area. The rate of change during the study period (29.56-, 14.47-, 53.86-, 24.93-, 44.57-, 2.077-, 49.84-, 62.28-) in the stations (Dohuk, Sulaymaniyah, Mosul, Baiji, Rutba, Baghdad, Diwaniyah, Basra) respectively .On the quarterly level, the rains in the fall and spring seasons tended to decrease in all stations except for the Baghdad station, which tended to rise, as the rate of change in it reached (21.6+, 10.9 +) mm during the fall and spring seasons respectively, while the highest recorded A decrease in the fall semester in the Duhok station, as it reached (74.9-) mm during the study period, and the highest decrease was recorded in the spring semester at Al-Diwaniyah Station by (65.1-) mm during the study period. As for the winter season, all stations recorded a low trend, and it reached a higher rate of decrease in the Basra station, which recorded a change (- 58.1) mm during the study period.