Abstract

The research aims to know the forecasts and the trend indicator of the rainfall rates in Iraq for the months of December and January, and today the rain is one of the most important climatic elements that are affected by climate changes and the increasing rise in temperatures in the world and Iraq in particular, as most climate studies are concerned with arid and semi-arid regions Dry by studying the characteristics of the climatic elements, since these characteristics are responsible for the emergence of many climatic conditions and phenomena that leave their effects in various aspects of life, and in order to reach an accurate understanding of the behavior of these elements, including the rates of rain, it is required to study them and know the direction of this situation and determine the indicator of future predictions. The research aims to use the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) methodology to predict the rainfall rates for these two months for the period 2023_2035 based on a time series representing rainfall rates that included the period 1970_2020. m (autoregressive model and seasonal integrated moving averages, which is symbolized by SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q )m by symbol SARIMA(p,d,q) (P,D,Q )m, which is called the seasonal model multiplier.

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The article was added to IASJ on 2023-06-15

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