The impact of monetary variables on bank credit, Iraq, a case study for the period (2004-2020)

Abstract

Abstract : This study discuss the impact of monetary variables on bank credit in Iraq, where the data for the study were obtained through the annual statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Iraq for the period (2004-2020), and the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration (ARDL) method was used to measure the impact of monetary variables and Represented by (wide money supply, interest rate on lending, inflation) as independent variables in (bank credit) as a dependent variable, where the results of the Phillips-Perron test) for the unit root show that all variables were stationary at the first difference, and the results of the limits test ( Bound test) indicates that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between monetary variables and bank credit, as the (LM test) test shows that the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable is free from the problem of autocorrelation, while the results of the Heteroskedasticity Test show that the residual homogeneity is constant. And it is not volatile, meaning that the relationship is devoid of the problem of instability of homogeneity, and from the error correction coefficient Coint Eq(-1) we conclude that (40%) of the model errors in the short term are automatically corrected to reach equilibrium in the long term, as We conclude that monetary variables had a significant effect in the short term on bank credit in Iraq, as well as significant (money supply) in the long term and insignificance (interest rate on lending and inflation).Key words: bank credit, monetary policy, money supply, interest rate, inflation.INTRODUCTION: Bank credit is an important activity through which banks act as a financial medium by accepting deposits, making loans, and following up on credit histories through a record-keeping system (2007: 7, Berentsen). Bank credit is affected by monetary policy, and monetary policy can be defined as a strategy of monetaryauthorities used to control the money supply and inflation, and thus affect economic stability and grThe impact of monetary variables on bank credit, Iraq, a case study for the period (2004-2020)Abdul Karim Jaber Shinjar Al-Issawi Alyaa Kadhim AyalUniversity of Al-Qadisiyah / College of Administration and EconomicsCorresponding Author: Alyaa Kadhim AyalAbstract : This study discuss the impact of monetary variables on bank credit in Iraq, where the data for the study were obtained through the annual statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Iraq for the period (2004-2020), and the Autoregressive Distributed Deceleration (ARDL) method was used to measure the impact of monetary variables and Represented by (wide money supply, interest rate on lending, inflation) as independent variables in (bank credit) as a dependent variable, where the results of the Phillips-Perron test) for the unit root show that all variables were stationary at the first difference, and the results of the limits test ( Bound test) indicates that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between monetary variables and bank credit, as the (LM test) test shows that the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable is free from the problem of autocorrelation, while the results of the Heteroskedasticity Test show that the residual homogeneity is constant. And it is not volatile, meaning that the relationship is devoid of the problem of instability of homogeneity, and from the error correction coefficient Coint Eq(-1) we conclude that (40%) of the model errors in the short term are automatically corrected to reach equilibrium in the long term, as We conclude that monetary variables had a significant effect in the short term on bank credit in Iraq, as well as significant (money supply) in the long term and insignificance (interest rate on lending and inflation).Key words: bank credit, monetary policy, money supply, interest rate, inflation.INTRODUCTION: Bank credit is an important activity through which banks act as a financial medium by accepting deposits, making loans, and following up on credit histories through a record-keeping system (2007: 7, Berentsen). Bank credit is affected by monetary policy, and monetary policy can be defined as a strategy of monetaryauthorities used to control the money supply and inflation, and thus affect economic stability and gr