Non-Linear Dynamic Modelling and Morecasting in Numbers of Patients with Cancer Disease in Nineveh City by Using Bayesian Approach

Abstract

This research deals with modeling cumulative number of patients with cancer disease in Nineveh Iraq. The method is based on classes of Exponential Growth Models and uses the ideas of Non-Linear Dynamic Generalized Model(NLDGM). We take three types of ; Modified exponential, Logistic and Gompertz and use the First-order Tayler series to approximate the Non-linear model to a linear model.Also this research, the discount factor has been explainy, and finding forecast distribution and forecast values by using Bayesian forecasting Approach.