Inflation Inflation Uncertainty and the Monetary Policy

Abstract

AbstractThe problem of the current research based on the negative effect of inflation uncertainty on almost the decisions of consumers and investors. Okum & Friedman referred that there is a sort of inconsiderable statistical relationship whatsoever between inflation and inflation uncertainty, the orientation of this effect may draw upon the time under test. The effect however differs in short term than the long one. The research aims at studying the relationship between the inflation and inflation uncertainty. The effect of monetary policy on them has been taken via debating the monthly temporal series of the metrical no. to the consumers in Turkey from 1980-2009. This has been regarded in terms of depending the Box – Jenkes for identifying the model through series of tests of GARCH model of regenerating the inflation uncertainty and also chosen through Granger casualty. The study concluded that there is an significant casual relationship between with two orientations; the inflation uncertainty and inflation. The effect of inflation uncertainty may be decreased in long term and this consequently agrees with the most of theoretical treaties viewed in literature.