Using ARIMA Models in Forecasting Money Supply in Qatar State

Abstract

The thesis aimed to study and analyzed the monthly data of the money supply in the narrow (M1), wide (M2) and widest (M3) accuracy for Qatar State from the period January 1982 till December 2006. That was done because of the most important role in stationary of money, then the economic stationary of the developed and growing states. The student used ARIMA models in forecasting for the coming four years (the period from January 2007 till December 2010), and that what named as Box-Jenkins methodology. The thesis attained that the monthly time series for money supply is non-stationary and has a trend, which was because of the inflation of money which, happened in the State after January 2003. And that what required the first differences to change the sires to time series stationary, then the student gain of most competent models for the forecasting to the future period.The thesis forecasted for the future monthly data for money supply (M1) using the model ARIMA (1,1,1), forecasting for the future monthly data for money supply (M2) using the model ARIMA (3,1,3). Then the forecasting for the future monthly data for money supply (M3) was using the model ARIMA (1,1,0).