Probability Analysis of Extreme Monthly Rainfall In Mosul City, North of Iraq

Abstract

This study is an attempt at evaluating the proper theoretical statistical distribution of extreme monthly rainfall in Mosul. That is why data for the period (1923-1958) have been made use of to have all relevant information about sets of the highest monthly rainfall then. The frequency analyses and all needed statistical tests were done using the final version 1.1 of HYFRAN Software that operate under windows environment. The following Five distributions are used: Normal, Pearson Type III, Lognormal, 3-parameter lognormal and Gumbal. We arrived at the estimation of the theoretical distribution by using maximum likelihood method. The adequacy test is carried out by applying the chi-square test. All five distributions have been found to be suitablefor representing of extreme monthly rainfall in the area under investigation