توفيق نموذج ملائم لفترات حدوث حالات الإصابة بالتهاب الكبد الفيروسي C في محافظة نينوى - دراسة مقارنة مع نموذج العملية الهندسية -

Abstract

In this study we are build a model for the intervals of occurrence of viral hepatitis type C in Nineveh province by using of time-series analysis, and compared with the Geometric process model, and reconcile an adequate model from Box - Jenkins models for that data.Resulted from the research that the intervals between HIV cases are decreasing Geometric process leading to unpredictability of these cases or configuration predictive function, while the ARIMA models proposed appropriate for the intervals of occurrence of viral hepatitis type C cases, and through comparison of these models show that ARIMA (1, 1, 5) model is the best model proposed for these data.