ESTIMATION OF DOKAN RESERVOIR RELIABILITY USING STREAM FLOWDATA GENERATION TECHNIQUES

Abstract

In the present study, two procedures of capacity-yield are applied to estimate the reliability ofDokan reservoir using data generation techniques. These procedures are the probability matrix(Gould) procedure, and the behavior analysis. Vulnerability, and resilience, are also calculated in thesecond procedure .The data is generated by using four approaches ,namely ,Thomas-Fiering modelwith log –transformation (TF-log), Two-Tier model (TTM), modified Two-Tier model (MTTM) andmodified Fragment model (MFM).These models are tested and compared with the historical data. It isconcluded that among these four procedures the Thomas-Fiering model with log –transformation isthe most appropriate for representing the Dokan reservoir inflow .Three factors are examined todetermine their influence on the minimum storage estimate .These are the length of stochasticallygenerated sequence, the initial state of storage ,and the starting month. The results reported here showthat sequences as long as 10,000 years or more may be needed to minimize the effects of thesefactors.