TY - JOUR ID - TI - Using simultaneous equations system for Iraqi economy (1988_2002) استخدام وتكييف نماذج إحصائية قياسية على الاقتصاد العراقي للفترة (1988-2002) AU - Haithem y. yousef هيثم يعقوب يوسف AU - Khalid T. Abdel krem خالد طه عبد الكريم AU - Hisham F. Abdel lateef هشام فرعون عبد اللطيف PY - 2010 VL - 6 IS - 2 SP - 417 EP - 452 JO - Academic Science Journal مجلة العلوم الاكاديمية SN - 83732222 25189255 AB - The system simultaneous equations represents (Simultaneous equations system) and a causal relationship two-way first of the independent variable Independent variable)) to the dependent variable (Dependent variable) and the second of the dependent variable to the independent variable and the mutual influence makes the assumption that the independence of the random variable for the independent variable is incorrect and therefore the capabilities of the least squares routine be biased (Biased) and inconsistent (Inconsistence), therefore, the presence of the impact of two-way street in the function mean in itself that there should be equations or a set of equations to describe the relationship between two variables Valmngar's in the first equation may be found in the group of independent variables in the second equation and this leads a dual role, as is the impact be in the first equation and influential in the second equation.Where the method of least squares two-stage (Two stage least square) and the method of least squares with three stages (Three stage least square) in the estimate have been using the program of Econometrics (Gretl 1.8.0) to get the results.The conclusions reached by researchers are: -1. The method of least squares two-stage (Two stage least square) is the best method of least squares with three stages (Three stage least square) to estimate the simultaneous equations system (Simultaneous equation system).2. Component of GDP was significantly below the level of (0.1) in the function of private spending.3. Investment component under a moral level (0.1,0.05,0.01) in the function of government spending in addition to that, the contribution to gross domestic product GDP (75.04%) to private spending any function that increase the gross domestic product (GDP) by (100%) leads to the increase in foreign spending by ( 75%) while the value of his contribution (60.16%) for the function of investment and this means that the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) by (100%) leads to increased investment by (60.16%) The function of government spending has reached its contribution (39.71%) which are to increase GDP (GDP) by (100%) leads to increased government spending by (39.71%).While researchers recommend to: -1. The need for economic efficiency at the enterprise level and all sectors of the economy through optimal use of factors of production to raise the rates of gross domestic product (GDP). 2. The need to encourage households to reduce the function of private spending and focus on saving (investment) to raise the rates of GDP 3. The need to follow the government's economic policy concerned with reducing rates of government spending in the field of consumer and make up for it on the field of investment to increase the rates of gross domestic product (GDP).

تمثل منظومة المعادلات الآنية (Simultaneous equations system) وجود العلاقة السببية باتجاهين الأول من المتغير المستقلIndependent variable ) ) إلى المتغير التابع (Dependent variable) والثاني من المتغير التابع إلى المتغير المستقل وهذا التأثير المتبادل يجعل الفرض الذي يتعلق باستقلال المتغير العشوائي عن المتغير المستقل غير صحيح وبالتالي فان مقدرات المربعات الصغرى الاعتيادية تكون متحيزة (Biased) وغير متسقة (Inconsistence) , لذلك فان وجود تأثير ذو اتجاهين في الدالة يعني بحد ذاته ضرورة وجود معادلتين أو مجموعه من المعادلات لوصف العلاقة بين متغيرين فالمتغير التابع في المعادلة الأولى قد يوجد ضمن مجموعة المتغيرات المستقلة في المعادلة الثانية وعن ذلك يؤدي دورا مزدوجا إذ يكون هو الأثر في المعادلة الأولى والمؤثر في المعادلة الثانية .حيث تم استخدام طريقة المربعات الصغرى ذات المرحلتين (Two stage least square ) وطريقة المربعات الصغرى ذات المراحل الثلاثة (Three stage least square) في التقدير وقد تم استخدام برنامج الاقتصاد القياسي (Gretl 1.8.0) للحصول على النتائج . ER -