Use the time-series models to predict the numbers of children with Respiratory Infections Streams(RIS) in the governorate of Sulaymaniyah
University of Kirkuk Journal For Administrative and Economic Science
2015, Volume 5, Issue 1, Pages 201-219
2015, Volume 5, Issue 1, Pages 201-219
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is modeling the time evolution of the number of children with upper respiratory tract infection (URT) in the governorates of Sulaymaniyah and relying on monthly data for the period (2005-2011). The results of the analysis showed that the appropriate model is integrated moving average model of second-class ARIMA (0,1,2), and based on this model we can predicted to prepare children with upper respiratory tract infection (URT) per month and for the next five years and has been a consistent predictive values with the values of the original series which shows the efficiency of the model.
Metrics