التنبؤ بالتلوث البيئي باستعمال نماذج بوكـــس – جينكنـز لمحطــــة الوزيريــــة في مدينة بغداد

Abstract

The environmental pollution is considered one of the important and serious problems that facing the human in the current time, because of its direct impact on the human health and other organisms.It has been observed in recent years, there is an increasing in environmental pollution rates, which impacted heavily on human health, and led to the emergence of many diseases, such as cancer, pneumonia, poisoning, birth defects, and other diseases.The environmental pollution impact, did not limited to humans, but also exceeded to animals and plants.Due to the importance of the topic and its gravity and because of its direct impact on human life, this research have been worked, for the purpose to predicting in the pollution of the four of most important factors that affecting on the environmental pollution, which they are, Carbon Monoxide Gas (CO), Sulfur Dioxide Gas (SO2), Dioxide Nitrogen Gas (NO2), Outstanding Particles (TSP), by using Box - Jenkins style, which is one of the most important and more statistical methods used for prediction, because of its flexibility and its accuracy in the application field.Before constructing Box – Jenkins model, and prediction to pollution rates per each factor of the above-mentioned four factors, we must identify the theoretical side, which, through on, we identified, Box – Jenkins style in time series analysis, Box – Jenkins models, and the stages of building Box – Jenkins models