Econometric Analysis of the Reality of Food Security in Iraq For the Period (1990-2016) Rice Yield Model Using the (ARDL) Models

Abstract

Rice crop is one of the main grain crops in the world. It is second after the wheat crop in terms of importance. In Iraq, it is a summer grain crop and it is considered one of the main components of the Iraqi daily food. The average production, productivity, and area of the rice crop in Iraq during (1990-2016) around (248.29) thousand tons and (749.98) kg / Dunum, and (352.62) thousand Dunums respectively. The average of local consumption, and imports of rice crop during the study period was (975.49, 724.72) thousand tons, respectively. The target of the research was analysis the reality of Iraqi food security, highlighting the magnitude of this phenomenon (food insecurity) estimation local consumption function of the rice crop in Iraq during (1990-2015). Using the ARDL models to test the cointegration, appreciate the short and long-term equilibrium relationship, and determine important factors those affecting the local consumption by the double-logarithmic formula were (total income, output, the exchange rate, the import price). The stability of the time series was detected by unit root test and all variables become stationary at the level expect the rate exchange was stationary at the first difference. The results showed that are with expected signals, the estimated relationship showed that the error term parameter expressed in (ECTt-1) and its value (-0.68) is negative and significant (p = 0.002). That indicates to short-term equilibrium relationship between the variables a long equilibrium relationship, meaning that the local consumption of the rice crop takes about (1.47) years for equilibrium value.