Comparison between Exponential Smoothing Models for Future Forecasting Using Exchange Rate of Iraqi Dinar Data against the American Dollar For The Period (2015-2020)

Abstract

This paper has used the time series data for the Iraqi dinar Exchange Rate against the American dollar for the period (2003-2014) by using the Exponential Smoothing models (Single Exponential Smoothing model and Double Exponential Smoothing model "Holt's Method"). The reason of using these models is because the high accuracy and flexible in analyzing the time series data. The results of application show that the proper and efficient model for representing time series data is:- The Double Exponential Smoothing model according to MSE measure after determine the optimal smoothing parameter to obtain future forecasting for the on the Iraqi dinar Exchange Rates against the American dollar for the period (2015-2020), these values showed a harmonic direction with the same original time series.- Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt’s method) has the ability to deal with the time series data that contains no seasonal pattern for the Iraqi dinar Exchange Rate against the American dollar for the period (2003-2014). The results showed that there is trend of non-seasonal decreasing trend. Minitab program has been considered for the statistical analysis.