Abstract

It has been known that the oil in Iraq is the backbone and the lifeblood of the Iraqi economy , after the decline in other sectors (of industry ,agriculture,ز…..,etc.) in the percentage of its contribution to the financing of the economy , the role of the oil sector because more important due to the circumstances that have past and still in our country,so we must contribute in the development of strategic planning , forecasting to put a comprehensive analysis and accurate to the reality and the future of this sector ,The most important phases of the oil industry and the goals of each stage has been identified then the theoretical and the practical point views were discussed on the basis of data that has been taken from the site of the Iraqi oil ministry from the south oil and Missan . The data of the study has been analysised according to Multiv- ariate method and time series method , therefore forecasting model and others have been built .The model (ARMAX(1,0,1)) showed its realability depending on statistics measure of the series production of oil in the south industries also on the variable production of gas as a factor in determining the production quantity in this region .By depending on the Multivariate method , the number of explain variable has been reduced to one variable depending on the method of principle component analysis with a high rate of interpretation.

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The article was added to IASJ on 2017-01-12

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