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Forecasting for Traffic accidents by using Box & Jenkins model
التنبؤات المستقبلية للحوادث المرورية باستخدام نماذج Box & Jenkins

Author: Mahmood J.Abu Alshair محمود جواد ابو الشعير
Journal: Al-Rafidain University College For Sciences مجلة كلية الرافدين الجامعة للعلوم ISSN: 16816870 Year: 2007 Issue: 21 Pages: 1-14
Publisher: Rafidain University College كلية الرافدين الجامعة

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Abstract

The future Forecasting is the most important item for preparing the Traffic accidents in Iraq. Box & Jenkins models gives a good results to the fact through applications have been done within this research among periodical accidents series which shows that the results are likely the fact of next years.

لم تحظى البيانات الرقمية المتوفرة عن الحوادث المرورية في العراق على نصيبها الوافر من العمليات الاحصائية المعتمدة تقريباً في تحليل الظواهر واستخراج النتائج التي تفيد في التفسير والتي اهمها التنبؤات المستقبلية لاعداد تلك الحوادث للوقوف على مدى الخطورة الناجمة عنها. وتعتبر نماذج B – J من النماذج التي اعطت نتائج قريبة الى الواقع المبتدأ به حيث تم تطبيقها في هذا البحث على سلسلة زمنية للحوادث اقتربت نتائجها مع واقع السنوات اللاحقة.


Article
SIMULATING AN EVOLUTION STRATEGY TO FORECAST TIME SERIES ARMA(1,1) MODEL

Author: Basa’d Ali Hussain
Journal: Al-Nahrain Journal of Science مجلة النهرين للعلوم ISSN: (print)26635453,(online)26635461 Year: 2007 Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 167-175
Publisher: Al-Nahrain University جامعة النهرين

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Abstract

This paper presents a multi-member evolution strategy to forecast future value of observed time series model. The proposed method is simple and straight forward and doesn't required any problem specific parameter tuning of the problem. The experiments designed based on simulate for different values of sample size (n=25,50,100),model parameters set ( ) and set to ( ) and use lead time for forecasting future value equal to (l=1,2,3).The value of take equal to (15,100) beside this, there is anther experiment designed for simulating one of method which is known as Box –Jenkins with same values of sample size, model parameters and leads time(l) for number of replicate (RR=1000). Results of this study has cleared by numbers of figures and tables, which are made to clear compression between ES-algorithm and B.J method based on computing values of FMSE (Forecasting Mean Square Error ) & Thiels' (U- statistic) ,statistics used as tools to measures reliability of ES- algorithm and also used to clear accuracy of ES algorithm results. Table(1), tables (2-7) and figures (4 -9) results of statistics show the reliability of algorithm to producing individuals which give reasonably predictions of future values of time series for different values of sample size and lead time values of model parameters.

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