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THE IMBALANCE OF THE PUBLIC BUDGET FINANCING, EXTERNAL DEBT AND ITS EFFECTIVE ON DEFICIT IN IRAQ FOR PERIOD (2003-2016)

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Abstract

The back of decline in annual growth rate of the almost producing sectors in Iraq, due increased dependence on the oil resource, which is represent the basis of internal financing, that is making process of financing instability due fluctuations of global oil prices, the weakness of financing policy comes from dependence of alone resource more than 91%, and others percentage come back to taxes and fees sector, the self of deficit financing through the government its failed, due to the inflexibility of the real productive structural, that make to push up toward to external debt, with risks, the diversification of income sources represent the solve of the financing problem for to decreased the government deficit variable and others as unemployment, inflation and get the good annual growth rate, the result of paper research approved is negative relationship between the structural of financing resources and gap of financing deficit on side, and other side there are appositive relationship with external debt, the research aims to analyzing and estimating the econometrics models of the selected variables, and statistically testing, as well as the interpretation and analysis of the economic relations between the variables studied, the results of study it showed the significance of the regression coefficient of fixed and oil revenues at the level of 5%, and taxes and other revenues by level of significant 10%, 25% sequentially, R2 shown explanatory power through the 83.1% of changes in the dependent variable (deficit as a percentage of GDP) which caused by independent variables (oil revenue, tax revenue, other income, GDP, external debt), also the model explain empty of correlation problems between independent variables through the partial correlation matrix, the financial deficit is largely affected by oil revenues as it is considered the basis for the preparation of government budgets, must be the diversification of sources of income, working to reduce external borrowing.

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